Departments:
Whadda the odds on this?

For 20 years, I lived with the certainty that I was the only U of C person whose professional interest was sports betting. The article on Judith Chevalier and her interest in sports betting ("Investigations," October/99) was a reminder that you can never assume you are alone.

Here are a few observations for Professor Chevalier. Point spreads do not move during the week simply because football teams are on a "hot streak." Numerous factors move point spreads, among them injuries, so-called inside information, and followers of big-money plays.

I can assure you there is no self-evident or universally agreed-upon definition of a "hot streak." If there were and if the definition were sound, there would be no Las Vegas sports books. The players would have most of the winners and put sports books out of business.

Thirdly, the article does not distinguish between college and pro football. They are different, and line moves for each have their own rationale.

You are right about over-reactions, because this is a market of a few big-line movers and many followers--but movers or followers have to do a little bit better than picking the winning side 53 percent of the time to make the effort financially successful.

I wait for the day when I can write you again and tell you that the U of C football team "made the board" in Las Vegas.

Paul P. Czuchra, AM'67, PhD'73
Las Vegas, Nevada